Deal Flow Monitor: Q4 2025

Private equity and VC deal-making in 2025 was shaped by transaction scale rather than volume, as ongoing macroeconomic pressures constrained activity

Total private equity deal value in 2025 surpassed the totals from the previous three years, with take‑private transactions – particularly in North America – the most important driver
Tech accounted for the largest share of buyout deal activity in 2025, but we are seeing some disruptive effects from AI in the software sub-sector over the long term
The exit outlook for private equity is cautiously constructive, with stabilizing rates, an IPO backlog in North America, and narrowing valuation gaps improving confidence